The week of July 13 was the turning point in the economy. Wall Street analysts and economists have declared the recession over. Their calls were based on a confluence of economic data which showed signs of growth in the coming months. Of course like all of you, we wanted to know how these declarations translate into jobs and what should a person do to jump start their job search. After further investigation, we discovered that the road to recovery will be bumpy and uncertain over the next few months. A “jobless” recovery and another economic bubble may loom in the distance. Job seekers need to keenly aware of what is happening.
THE BASIS OF THE “JOBLESS” RECOVERY
An old saying goes “Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it”. The current economy, like in 2001-2002 recession, is now positioned for a “jobless” recovery. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke slid a soft warning about a “jobless” recovery into his testimony on Capitol Hill. Those who heard it were not happy. Here is what “Jobless” Recovery means in layman’s terms: a jobless recovery is a point where there is economic growth but little or no job growth. It is does not mean companies will not hire people. It means that companies will try to use technology to drive higher worker productivity and profit margins before hiring more people.
It is our recommendation that jobseekers be attentive to detail when networking because job openings will be filled in a matter of days. Employee referrals will be a primary avenue to get in the door. We also recommend that jobseekers practice and refine their networking and interviewing skills. Both, along with a strong resume, will paramount in closing the deal. Those who can close the deal and prove that they can hit the ground running will get the job.
WHO WILL GET HIRED IN THE “JOBLESS” RECOVERY
In the early stages of the upturn, retention bonuses will be paid to top performers and companies will hire people in strategic sales, marketing and product development positions to gain market share through client relationships and expertise. They will also hire at the entry level positions to maximize profits and productivity. Job growth in middle management and middle level jobs will remain sluggish because of corporate bankruptcies and cost cutting induced layoffs. However, companies will also hire people to keep overtime to acceptable levels. The early stages of the recovery will be a bumpy ride but the specific areas of job growth will include: Accounting, Alternative Energy, Climate Change, Environmental Consulting and Civil Engineering, Construction, Healthcare, Information Technology and Insurance.
WHAT JOB SEEKERS NEED TO DO
Build a list of target companies: These are companies who have the culture, opportunities and future you are looking for. Do not limit your choices to the big name companies because you will miss the strong opportunities in small businesses.
Beware of “Built to Flip” companies whose sole purpose is to raise capital and sell themselves the highest bidder. Noted business author Jim Collins wrote a very article strong warning to the public about companies who are “Built to Flip”. Our take is jobseekers beware and get every promise in writing.
Network with a purpose: In an “jobless” recovery job openings can be filled in hours or days depending on the availability of qualified candidates. Your relationships with people in your target companies will produce dividends if they are created properly.
A WORD OF WARNING
Once the recovery becomes more apparent, capital will flow into start up companies and ventures which have tolerable risk factors, strong growth potential and good balance sheets. However there is a chance that the spate of new “green” companies could form a new economic bubble if the “irrational exuberance” that caused the Internet and Housing bubbles takes over.